Sports Arbitrage Blog
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March 09, 2020
Sports Arbitrage Betting
Imagine a scenario where you invest an amount of money and there is a guaranteed profit! Hard? Impossible? Not at all! Let us provide you with a mathematically proven strategy, which, when applied correctly, actually provides such possibilities.
What is arbitrage?
Arbitrage itself is defined as identifying and taking advantage of any differences between the prices of various markets. Arbitrage sports betting functions as a practice which, with the help of mathematical formulas, allows you to place bets on a specific sport across different bookmaker websites to gain a definite profit. This blog came to be after a curious idea to see if web scraping can enhance this process.
Even though this process includes the word “betting”, it is not considered gambling, rather a mathematical process of securing a profit. Many arbers (people who seek out arbitrage possibilities) know very little about sports but understand the math and process behind betting on them.
Usually, to execute arbitrage sports betting, one must manually roam through various bookmaker websites (websites that provide betting on sports), search through various combinations of odds and find which ones provide the possibility of arbitrage. It sounds like a very lengthy and complicated process, so can web scraping reduce the time and effort it takes to apply this strategy to gain a profit?
To better understand, let’s see how such possibilities exist and what the calculations behind the strategy are.
How does arbitrage work.
Arbitrage is possible when any inconsistency between odds on different betting sites occur, which therefore creates the opportunity for a secure profit gain by placing bets on all of the possible outcomes across different sports betting websites. Such opportunities mostly arise when bookmakers are in disagreement with the odds or make a mistake when pricing the market.
To arbitrage bet, there are two things you must make sure of: does an arbitrage opportunity exist with the combination of odds found? If yes, then how do you divide the investment between those odds so there will be a guaranteed profit?
To better explain, let’s take an example - a hypothetical scenario where Bookmaker 1 has placed odds as follows: Team A’s odds of winning are 1.3, but Team B’s odds are 3.93. However, Bookmaker 2 considers different and has chosen to place odds as for Team A as 1.42, but Team B as 2.9.
Arbitrage-Betting-Example-Table-Webscraper-Blog-IO
Now, the math behind figuring out if this case is an arbitrage possibility is quite straightforward. All it takes is to divide 1 by each of the odds and sum both of the numbers, then if the sum number is below 1, an arbitrage possibility exists.
Is-Arbitrage-Possible-Formula-Sheet-Webscraper-Blog-IO
Accordingly, we take the odds that would ensure a profit and move on to figuring out how much to place on which odd. For example, let’s say that we decide to invest $1000 into arbitrage betting, the calculation would be:
Amount-To-Place-On-A-Bet-Sports-Arbitrage-Betting-Webscraper-Blog-IO
It's as easy as that. However, there’s no need to calculate this all by yourself - there are many calculators available online where the amount to invest and the odds of each outcome from the various bookmakers’ sites can be inserted and it will do the math for you.
Is it legal?
Arbitrage betting is not illegal by itself – at least there are no laws in place to stand against it – however, it often does break the terms & conditions of the bookmaker sites. Nevertheless, arbers argue that the art of arbitrage sports betting is simply calculating and picking the good value odds of the sites they bet on.
However, bookmakers do have a trained hand on detecting arbers. It can be rather obvious that an account is arbitrage betting when they have a constant long-term profit. In this case, bookmakers can suspend and block accounts from the websites they own.
How can web scraping help?
To answer the question of if and how web scraping can improve or help in this lengthy process of finding arbitrage possibilities, we took various bookmaker sites and scraped the records of odds of football matches, afterward creating formulas from the examples shown above to see if, from the records scraped, there are any arbitrage possibilities.
Our-Data-Example-Sheet-Sports-Betting-Arbitrage-Webscraper-Blog-IO
You can access our scraped records here.
We scraped every five minutes over a five-day period, across 7 different sports betting websites. After gathering all the records in Google Sheets and applying the formulas explained previously in the blog, it was clear that sports arbitrage betting is possible and quite easy when a scraper does all the hard work for you. From our accumulated data, we found 3 arbitrage possibilities, allowing us to hypothetically gain a $15 profit. Arbitrage betting might not be a “get rich fast” approach, but if constant work is put into investing, hypothetically, $1000 profit could be made in a one-year period from sports arbitrage betting.
Sports betting is supposed to be extremely hard to beat. In fact, only a small percentage of bettors win long-term profits through this type of gambling.
Arbitrage betting (arbing) offers you a shortcut toward making money.
You can be the world’s worst handicapper and still win through arbing.
This method involves wagering on all outcomes of a match in a way that guarantees profit. To do this, you must find two or more bookmakers that differ enough on the odds to lock in your win.
Here’s an example:
- Cincinnati Bengals +200
- Baltimore Ravens -175
- You bet $150 on the Bengals
- You should wager $78.55 on the Ravens to maximize your arb
- Your profit will be $7.10
The trouble with arbing is that it doesn’t offer a very big profit margin. Nevertheless, you can still win a decent amount of money if your wagers are large enough.
Of course, you have to find good arbs before counting your winnings. That said, I’ll discuss more on this subject, including software that can help you spot profitable opportunities.
The Main Challenge Is Finding Arbs
The sportsbook and online sportsbooks aren’t any help themselves aren’t any help with arbitrage betting; they actually despise arbers. Therefore, you’ll be on your own when trying to find these opportunities. Assuming you can regularly spot arbs, then you can make profits again and again.
The good news is that plenty of arbs exist on a daily basis.
After all, the sports betting world is filled with different markets.
The trouble, though, is that you need to both find arbs and bet on each leg in time. Assuming you mess up just one of the legs, then your guaranteed profit will likely be gone.
Here’s an example:
- Tampa Bay Rays +185
- New York Yankees -160
- You wager $200 on the Rays
- The bookmaker shifts the Yankees’ odds to -200
- You’re guaranteed to lose if you still wager on the Yankees
- You’ve basically placed a regular $200 bet on Tampa Bay
Arbitrage betting is a combination of making profitable wagers and capitalizing on opportunities in time. If you’re able to master these skills, then you can look forward to consistent winnings.
You Can’t Rely on Finding Arbs by Yourself
Your first inclination regarding arbitrage gambling may be to try and find opportunities yourself. Doing so requires monitoring a variety of sportsbooks and looking for potential arbs.
You can theoretically still find winning opportunities this way. But your chances of doing so with any consistency are next to nothing.
Again, bookmakers hate arbers.
They normally remain close to each other in terms of odds to avoid giving up arbs.
Of course, sportsbooks do differ enough on the odds sometimes to create winning opportunities. But they often close these gaps before too many gamblers can take advantage.
If you’ve got 10 sportsbooks open on your phone and keep refreshing them, then you’ll be terrible at timing arbs. Long story short, you can’t do it on your own.
You Must Use Arb Software
The only sensible way to arbitrage bet is to use software. You need a program that specifically seeks out arbitrage betting opportunities.
Some programs are designed solely for finding arbs and alerting you to them.
These “arb finders” are even available for free in some cases (covered later).
General sports betting software programs can do the same trick in some cases. You can also use these programs for other purposes, such as finding steam moves, public betting percentages, and updated odds.
The key is for you to find a program that tracks this information so you don’t have to.
Free Arbitrage Betting Software Exists
You’ll be pleased to know that you don’t have to spend anything on arbitrage gambling software. Instead, plenty of free programs exist across the internet.
The obvious advantage of free software is that you don’t need to pay for anything. Instead, you can just fire up these programs and begin looking for arbs.
The downside is that freebies don’t work extremely well.
They suffer from the following problems:
- They don’t cover many markets
- They don’t refresh quickly
- Odds often come in on a delay
- It’s hard to bet each leg in time when relying on these programs
You may ultimately decide to invest in software when considering free programs’ limitations. But if you’re still interested in the latter, then you’ll be happy to know that they’re easy to use.
Many companies offer a free version of their software that includes an arb-finding option.
You can continue using this version until deciding to upgrade to the premium service.
The arb-finding feature is self-explanatory in most cases. You just need to apply the relevant filter to figure out where you can take advantage of arbs.
You May Want to Buy Software
Whether or not you decide to pay for arbing software depends upon how serious you are about the matter.
You might begin by using a free service and placing low-stakes wagers.
This route gives you a chance to decide how serious you are about the matter.
Assuming you do become a serious arber, then you should consider upgrading.
Doing so provides you with the following advantages:
- Odds refresh faster and give you a stronger chance to bet every leg in time.
- Your get extra features, such as alerts, arbing calculator, and more-detailed filters.
- More markets are covered.
Of these benefits, speed is of the utmost importance. Arbs don’t hang around forever, making free programs risky.
You can cut down on this risk by paying for software. You’ll receive refreshed odds at a faster rate with more in-depth programs.
Concerns With Arbing and Paying for Software
The other side of the equation is that you might not find arbing enjoyable or worth your time. You’ll especially feel this way if you have a small bankroll and are only making a few dollars per arb.
Even with the best software, arbitrage betting can be a time-consuming process.
You’ll likely question the hours you pour into the matter with the slim profit margins involved.
Another downside is that your account may be limited or even banned.
Conclusion
Arbitrage betting is a promising way to make money through sports gambling. When arbitrage betting is done right, it can deliver guaranteed profits.
You just need to find situations where bookmakers differ enough on odds for a given match to win. Of course, this process is easier said than done.
Technically, you can find arbs by yourself. You can constantly refresh online sportsbooks on your phone and monitor the odds. But you’ll be putting yourself through hell with this method.
Instead, you should use either free or paid arb finders.
These programs are designed to monitor lines and alert you to arbs. This scenario cuts out a lot of the work involved with arbitrage gambling.
The good news is that you can use free programs if you don’t feel like investing in software.
The drawback, though, is that free arb finders don’t refresh odds quickly or cover as many markets.
Sports Arbitrage Blog Examples
Buying software comes with the obvious downside of having to spend money. But the benefit is that you’ll get updated odds faster and find arbs across more markets.
Sport Arbitrage Trading
In the end, you need to decide how serious you are about arbitrage betting.
Sports Arbitrage Betting
Assuming you’re really serious about making money from the matter, then you should pay for software.
Sports Betting Arbitrage Example
If you just want to get your feet wet with arbing, then the free programs should suffice. You may even be able to make a little money with this software.
I suggest arbing with a large bankroll. The more you’re able to wager, the higher profit margins you’ll earn.
Sports Arbitrage Calculator
Of course, nothing is stopping you from arbing with a smaller bankroll. But the profits you earn will essentially amount to pennies or dollars per arb.